Firefighter with the Polish State Fire Service (PSP) in Katowice. GIS analyst. UESCA-certified ultrarunning coach. I work with data in both professions.
UltraFlow is the tool I needed after my own 160 km race: something that reads the daily metrics and gives a clear, contextual answer on what to do — not just what the numbers say.
The paper addresses a practical problem in ultra training: wearable metrics such as HRV and A:C ratio often normalise before the body is fully recovered, leading athletes to return to intensity too early. A composite Injury Risk Score (IRS) is proposed to detect residual risk even when individual metrics appear acceptable.
HRV Trend = 7-day avg HRV ÷ pre-race baseline HRV
| IRS Score | Risk Level | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|
| < 80 | Low | Continue normal training |
| 80–120 | Moderate | Consider load reduction |
| 120–160 | High | Mandatory load reduction |
| > 160 | Critical | Cease training, prioritise recovery |
Key finding: on Day 43 post-SOG 160 km, the subject's HRV had exceeded pre-race baseline (47 vs 43 ms), and A:C ratio was within optimal range (1.05). Subjective readiness was 6.7/10. Despite this, the IRS registered 92.7 — moderate risk — driven by accumulated training strain (724) during the recovery period. This demonstrates that single-metric monitoring is insufficient for return-to-training decisions following extreme endurance events.
The IRS is implemented in UltraFlow and computed daily from Garmin wearable data. It forms the basis of the post-ultra recovery monitoring feature.
Selected finishes. Full list available on request.